Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Oil industry needs $3Trillion to make it to 2020

ICYMI: Summer 2016 Oil Recap — D. Ray Long: "In a recent report, John England and Andrew Slaughter at Deloitte conclude that, at minimum. the global upstream industry will need to invest about $3 trillion during 2016-2020 to ensure long-term sustainability.

It's an open question if anyone actually wants to spend that money for less than stellar returns. Recall Steven Kopits' wonderful talk from over two years ago where I wrote:

"Kopits addresses the "flatness" of oil production since 2005, and why the decline has not been steeper. In short, this is because we threw a lot of money at it to the tune of $3.5 trillion spent maintaining the legacy oil and gas system since 2005. What did we get for all this invested money? Sadly what we got was a decline in legacy oil production of 1 million barrels per day (mbpd).""

Monday, September 26, 2016

Energy growth must stop, will stop--all forms of energy.

There are several problems with renewable energy sources, we address only the show-stoppers.

There is no sign that renewables have or will reduce fossil use.


Renewables make heavy use of fossil-fuels to produce, install, and operate.
What is it made of? Lots of steel, concrete and advanced plastic. Material requirements of a modern wind turbine have been reviewed by the United States Geological Survey. On average 1 MW of wind capacity requires 103 tonnes of stainless steel, 402 tonnes of concrete, 6.8 tonnes of fiberglass, 3 tonnes of copper and 20 tonnes of cast iron. The elegant blades are made of fiberglass, the skyscraper sized tower of steel, and the base of concrete. http://www.theenergycollective.com/robertwilson190/344771/can-you-make-wind-turbine-without-fossil-fuels
Renewables lead people away from degrowth, wasting valuable time.
First, I refer you to the previous post: the continued growth of any energy technology—if consumed on the planet—will bring us to a boil. Beyond that, we hit astrophysically nonsensical limits within centuries. So energy scale must cease growth. Likewise, efficiency limits will prevent us from increasing our effective energy available without bound. http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/can-economic-growth-last/

Saturday, September 24, 2016

International targets for heat reduction will not be reached

Common Dreams: "Speaking at a University of Oxford conference this week, led by leading U.K. climate researcher Richard Betts, scientists said global greenhouse gas emissions are not likely to slow down quickly enough to avoid passing the 1.5°C target.

The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C was agreed to in the landmark Paris agreement negotiated by 195 nations last year."
Looks like we might continue the car culture right up to the end. Will you take action and join us now?

Friday, September 23, 2016

Renewables promote growth, do not reduce fossil-fuel usage.

Here is projected world energy use. You can argue that fossil-fuels would be higher without renewables, but you cannot argue that renewables will make fossil-fuels go down. So where is the emission reduction. And could not a better result be achieved by degrowth? The only downturn in liquids and natural gas is from recession.


What about this solar array? How much fossil-fuel to support it?

Would it not be better to have fewer suburban homes than an array like this to supply them?


Monday, September 19, 2016

Campaign for fare-free public transportation is working

The hard work of public transport advocacy is showing progress. This blog is part of  a network of 40 blogs based in the US maintained with only a handful of activists, In just a few years, what have we accomplished?
  • re-framed debate from the cost of buses to the cost of cars
  • exposed the canard about free buses being too crowded
  • exposed the canard about free buses being full of homeless
  • silenced the "nothing is free" silliness
  • encouraged people to join advocacy groups
  • reaching a 1000 readers a day on social media
  • worked with international fare-free advocates in 16 countries
What if you joined us? Become a blogger. It's easy. Write your opinion, or post links to news and opinion that helps expose the private auto for what it is... bad for climate, bad for economy, and heavily subsidized.

You can make a difference... maybe even save the biosphere.

 

More panic over falling birth rate

It's like a parallel universe. At the environment meetings all the governments pledge to drop carbon emissions by numbers like 90%. What could be more helpful than people voluntarily deciding to reduce birth rates? But the growth advocates were never telling the truth about reducing carbon emissions, and their panic over birth rates gives them away. They are careful not to mix the two subjects, treating them as unrelated.
Japan has a worrying number of virgins, government finds | The Independent: "This is not unique to Japan -- in various parts of the developed world, economic uncertainty is reshaping the way millennials and other young people conceive of their sex lives and marital choices. But it's particularly pronounced in the Asian nation, where experts and government officials have spent the better part of a decade fretting over the country's population decline and, as WorldViews once put it, "sexual apathy.""
When cities are car-free, people will urbanize more, and birth rates will fall even faster. This is our best hope for long-term human survival. The carbon is already in the air. Along with zero emissions, we need to reduce the amount of human activity, regardless of energy source. Our population is going to reduce, one way or another. We should be grateful for those declining to have children, and make it easier for them.

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Making urban public transport fare-free very doable and actually saves money

In urban areas, buses, trams, and such should be made fare-free. This will save money. Every municipality with cars can save. Even small towns. The money spent on traffic and parking enforcement alone would likely cover the lost fares in most cases. Then, the town would reap many more valuable benefits such as:
  • fewer collisions
  • more room
  • peace and quiet
  • safer cycling
  • cleaner air
  • more walking
  • lower health costs
  • less money exported for petrol
  • you can probably think of several more 

Saturday, September 17, 2016

It's all about the oil in #Kirkuk - this pdf shows the panic

Iraqi Kurdistan Oil and Gas Outlook

...These issues all have to be tackled at a time when
the very structure of government in both Erbil and
Baghdad is severely constrained by polarization
in Kurdistan and by constant feuding in Baghdad
that is making it difficult, if not impossible, to form
a new broad-based cabinet. Moreover, the regional
background remains far from encouraging with the
multinational coalition making only slow progress in
the wars against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham
(ISIS) in Iraq and Syria, and with ISIS continuing to
attack energy installations in federal Iraq and to
threaten hydrocarbon fields under Kurdish control...

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

What's going on in MiddleEast NorthAfrica - MENA? War on Islam.

Wars for energy are increasing and will continue to increase. Shifting allegiances are confusing, but there is a way to sort it out.

First, understand human survival hierarchy.

  • Nature, (physics, thermodynamics) has the most power.
  • Second is energy (usage, supply, demand).
  • Third is economics (food, shelter).
  • Last is finance (money, debt).

The corporate media is obsessed with who is on top, but to us, the people, we don't care. We don't want a top. But from their media, we get caught up in all the divisions of family, clan, tribe, nation, etc.

What is going on in MENA? All the finance people are trying to keep the interest payments coming in. To do that, they need to control the hi-net-energy fuel that is located there.

Unfortunately for them, Muslims stand in their way, so they have declared war on Islam.

Monday, September 12, 2016

One cost of not investing in #publictransit - $160B for congestion

nationalmemo: Drivers waste some $160 billion and 6.9 billion hours sitting in traffic. For the average motorist, that translates to almost two full days idling behind the wheel.

In 2010, poorly maintained public transit systems cost the economy $90 billion in lost time and wasted fuel. That number is expected to reach $570 billion annually by the end of this decade—and more than $1 trillion by 2040.